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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 48

Minnesota Vikings 2 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 18-J.Locke punts 38 yards to CAR 10, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.73 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.91 EP
KICK -1.33 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP