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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 19 at the 33

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(8:18) (Field Goal formation) 11-S.Janikowski 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.84 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 33, worth -1.83 EP
KICK +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 43, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model