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OAK Away

Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Mularkey
Sunday 2016-09-25 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

OAK
43.6%
TEN
56.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.095 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.115 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • TEN defense: +0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • QB edge to TEN: Marcus Mariota (TEN) -0.008 vs Derek Carr (LV) -0.022 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

OAK 21
–
TEN 23
Projected margin: TEN by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

OAK

Austin Howard T Out Ankle
Matt McCants T Out Knee
David Amerson CB Questionable Concussion
Rodney Hudson C Questionable Knee
Gabe Jackson G Questionable Knee
Taiwan Jones RB Questionable Knee
Darius Latham DT Questionable Concussion
Jihad Ward DE Questionable Hip
Menelik Watson T Questionable Groin

TEN

Delanie Walker TE Questionable Hamstring
Derrick Morgan LB Questionable Hamstring
Kendall Wright WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 17
–
TEN 10

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:55 FG TEN (9:55) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. OAK 0 – TEN 3
  • Q1 08:27 TD LV (8:27) 28-L.Murray up the middle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 6 – TEN 3
  • Q2 08:18 FG LV (8:18) (Field Goal formation) 11-S.Janikowski 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. OAK 10 – TEN 3
  • Q2 00:40 TD LV (:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass to 10-S.Roberts for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 16 – TEN 3
  • Q3 05:59 TD TEN (5:59) 29-D.Murray right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 17 – TEN 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 93%

    (9:55) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:24) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to LV 7, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (2:38) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 48 yards to TEN 25, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:13) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 43 yards to LV 14, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 30-J.Richard to LV 26 for 12 yards (47-A.Blake; 59-W.Woodyard).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 15 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 27%

    (11:00) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 35 yards to TEN 16, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 19 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 70%

    (8:18) (Field Goal formation) 11-S.Janikowski 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 9 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 31%

    (4:25) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 40 yards to LV 9, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 48%

    (9:53) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 35 yards to TEN 7, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (4:54) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 60 yards to TEN 13, Center-59-J.Condo. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 23 for 10 yards (57-C.James; 41-B.Trawick).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 5 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (3:49) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 62 yards to LV 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 13 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:33) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 72 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback. PENALTY on TEN-89-P.Supernaw, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 20.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 20 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (10:13) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 56 yards to LV 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 30-J.Richard to LV 27 for 12 yards (26-A.Andrews; 55-S.Spence).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 51%

    (7:28) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 33 yards to TEN 8, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (4:32) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 57 yards to LV 12, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 30-J.Richard to LV 26 for 14 yards (50-N.Palmer; 31-K.Byard).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 43 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 46%

    (2:00) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 12 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.45 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 96%

    (:16) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short left to 83-H.Douglas.