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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 42

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(9:53) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 35 yards to TEN 7, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.12 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 42, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP