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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 72

Tennessee Titans 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(3:49) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 62 yards to LV 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +2.57 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 72, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 30, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model