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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 72

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(1:33) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 72 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback. PENALTY on TEN-89-P.Supernaw, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 20.

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.28 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 72, worth -4.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 30, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model