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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 20 at the 71

Tennessee Titans 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(10:13) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 56 yards to LV 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 30-J.Richard to LV 27 for 12 yards (26-A.Andrews; 55-S.Spence).

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.02 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 71, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 29, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model