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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 12

Tennessee Titans 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(:16) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short left to 83-H.Douglas.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +3.47 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.45 EP