Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 71

Los Angeles Chargers 19 – Indianapolis Colts 20

(1:42) 8-D.Kaser punts 39 yards to IND 32, Center-47-M.Windt. 11-Q.Bray to IND 32 for no gain (58-T.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.51 EP
57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 71, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model