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San Diego Chargers

HC Mike McCoy
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
Sunday 2016-09-25 · 16:25 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.5 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

SD
57.2%
IND
42.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: -0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • IND defense: +0.062 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Andrew Luck (IND): -0.015 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LAC defense: -0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SD 24
–
IND 22
Projected margin: SD by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

SD

Jahleel Addae S Out Collarbone
Joey Bosa DE Out Hamstring
Antonio Gates TE Doubtful Hamstring
Orlando Franklin G Questionable Hamstring

IND

Darius Butler CB Out Hamstring
Denzelle Good T Out Back
Donte Moncrief WR Out Shoulder
Patrick Robinson CB Out Concussion
T.Y. Hilton WR Questionable Knee
Trent Cole LB Questionable Back
Vontae Davis CB Questionable Ankle
T.J. Green S Questionable Knee
Ryan Kelly C Questionable Shoulder
Andrew Luck QB Questionable Right Shoulder
Clayton Geathers S Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SD 22
–
IND 26

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:58 FG IND (8:58) 4-A.Vinatieri 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. SD 0 – IND 3
  • Q1 03:43 TD IND (3:43) (Run formation) 23-F.Gore up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 0 – IND 9
  • Q2 14:56 FG LAC (14:56) 2-J.Lambo 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser. SD 3 – IND 10
  • Q2 14:09 FG LAC (14:09) 2-J.Lambo 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser. SD 6 – IND 10
  • Q2 06:30 FG IND (6:30) 4-A.Vinatieri 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. SD 6 – IND 13
  • Q2 01:08 TD LAC (1:08) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck sacked at LAC 37 for -9 yards (57-J.Brown, 31-A.Phillips). FUMBLES (57-J.Brown), RECOVERED by LAC-91-C.Reid at LAC 39. 91-C.Reid for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Credit Brown with a sack for -11 yards SD 12 – IND 13
  • Q3 08:27 TD LAC (8:27) (Run formation) 79-K.Wiggins reported in as eligible. 28-M.Gordon right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SD 19 – IND 13
  • Q3 02:43 TD IND (2:43) (Run formation) 63-A.Blythe reported in as eligible. 33-R.Turbin right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SD 19 – IND 19
  • Q4 07:38 FG LAC (7:38) 2-J.Lambo 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser. SD 22 – IND 20
  • Q4 01:28 TD IND (1:28) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 13-T.Hilton for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 22 – IND 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 5 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 90%

    (8:58) 4-A.Vinatieri 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 5 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (7:13) 8-D.Kaser punts 46 yards to IND 25, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray. PENALTY on IND-44-A.Morrison, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 25.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 85%

    (14:56) 2-J.Lambo 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 16 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 94%

    (14:09) 2-J.Lambo 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 4 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 94%

    (6:30) 4-A.Vinatieri 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (1:42) 8-D.Kaser punts 39 yards to IND 32, Center-47-M.Windt. 11-Q.Bray to IND 32 for no gain (58-T.Williams).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (7:38) 2-J.Lambo 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 15 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (6:46) 1-P.McAfee punts 50 yards to LAC 18, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 3 at the 53 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 24%

    (2:36) 8-D.Kaser punts 36 yards to IND 17, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 7 at the 80 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 13-T.Hilton to IND 28 for 8 yards (24-B.Flowers). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 11 at the 45 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 42%

    (:07) 1-P.McAfee punts 27 yards to LAC 18, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND-84-J.Doyle. First touch violation. Chargers can extend the period for one play.