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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 20

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:58) 4-A.Vinatieri 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.24 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model