4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 35

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Seattle Seahawks 21

What Actually Happened

(3:55) 4-P.Dawson 53 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.62 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 35, worth -1.74 EP
KICK +0.26 EP
What Happened
  • 63% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 45, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model