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San Francisco 49ers

HC Chip Kelly
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SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2016-09-25 · 16:05 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

SF
22.1%
SEA
77.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: -0.145 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to SEA: Russell Wilson (SEA) +0.280 vs Blaine Gabbert (SF) -0.094 EPA/dropback
  • SEA defense: -0.113 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • SEA offense: +0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 18
–
SEA 27
Projected margin: SEA by 9 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

SF

Anthony Davis T Out Concussion
Marcus Cromartie S Questionable Ankle
Jaquiski Tartt S Questionable Knee

SEA

Thomas Rawls RB Doubtful Shin
Germain Ifedi G Doubtful Ankle
Nick Vannett TE Doubtful Ankle
Tyler Lockett WR Questionable Knee
C.J. Prosise RB Questionable Wrist

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 18
–
SEA 37

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:24 TD SEA (14:24) 32-C.Michael left tackle for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – SEA 6
  • Q1 04:11 TD SEA (4:11) (Shotgun) 32-C.Michael up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – SEA 13
  • Q2 09:44 FG SF (9:44) 4-P.Dawson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 3 – SEA 14
  • Q2 08:00 TD SEA (8:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 88-J.Graham for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 3 – SEA 20
  • Q2 01:16 FG SEA (1:16) 4-S.Hauschka 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SF 3 – SEA 24
  • Q3 06:56 FG SEA (6:56) 4-S.Hauschka 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SF 3 – SEA 27
  • Q3 02:32 FG SEA (2:32) 4-S.Hauschka 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SF 3 – SEA 30
  • Q4 12:59 TD SEA (12:59) (Shotgun) 2-T.Boykin pass short left to 89-D.Baldwin for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 3 – SEA 36
  • Q4 07:53 TD SF (7:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-C.Hyde left guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 9 – SEA 37
  • Q4 01:01 TD SF (1:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-C.Hyde right guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 16 – SEA 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (12:45) 5-B.Pinion punts 54 yards to SEA 14, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 28 for 14 yards (13-A.Burbridge; 36-D.Johnson). PENALTY on SF-86-K.Nelson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 28.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (2:32) 5-B.Pinion punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-86-K.Nelson, Touchback.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (:23) 9-J.Ryan punts 57 yards to SF 14, Center-48-N.Frese. 17-J.Kerley pushed ob at SF 34 for 20 yards (33-K.McCray).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 28%

    (13:48) 5-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to SEA 8, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 2 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (9:44) 4-P.Dawson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 63%

    (3:55) 4-P.Dawson 53 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 94%

    (1:16) 4-S.Hauschka 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:53) 5-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to SEA 32, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 26 for -6 yards (86-K.Nelson).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (13:35) 5-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to SEA 9, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 5 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (12:37) 9-J.Ryan punts 45 yards to SF 41, Center-48-N.Frese, downed by SEA-91-C.Marsh.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 20%

    (11:20) 5-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to SEA 12, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett to SF 26 for 62 yards (13-A.Burbridge).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 2 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 94%

    (6:56) 4-S.Hauschka 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (2:32) 4-S.Hauschka 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:38) 5-B.Pinion punts 29 yards to SEA 42, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-86-K.Nelson.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 92%

    (9:32) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert scrambles left end ran ob at SEA 12 for 5 yards (35-D.Shead).