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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 15

Seattle Seahawks 21 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 4-S.Hauschka 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +3.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.00 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +2.16 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP