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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 68

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(12:45) 5-B.Pinion punts 54 yards to SEA 14, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 28 for 14 yards (13-A.Burbridge; 36-D.Johnson). PENALTY on SF-86-K.Nelson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 28.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.32 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 68, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 26, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model