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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 4

Seattle Seahawks 27 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:32) 4-S.Hauschka 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.22 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 4, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.90 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP