Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 71

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Seattle Seahawks 30

(1:38) 5-B.Pinion punts 29 yards to SEA 42, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-86-K.Nelson.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.32 EP
61% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 71, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model