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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 61

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(2:32) 5-B.Pinion punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-86-K.Nelson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.78 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 61, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 20, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP