Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 66

New England Patriots 0 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(12:34) 6-R.Allen punts 56 yards to BUF 10, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-B.Tate to BUF 20 for 10 yards (18-M.Slater; 43-N.Ebner). PENALTY on BUF-24-S.Gilmore, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 10.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.67 EP
67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 66, worth -3.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model