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Buffalo Bills

HC Rex Ryan
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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2016-10-02 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

BUF
49.6%
NE
50.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Jacoby Brissett (NE): -0.230 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NE defense: -0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • BUF offense: +0.020 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • NE on 3 more days rest than BUF

Predicted Final Score

BUF 20
–
NE 21
Projected margin: NE by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

BUF

Cyrus Kouandjio T Out Ankle
Patrick Lewis C Out Knee
Greg Salas WR Out Groin
Sammy Watkins WR Out Foot
Colt Anderson S Questionable Foot
Charles Clay TE Questionable Knee
Ronald Darby CB Questionable Hamstring
Cordy Glenn T Questionable Ankle
Cardale Jones QB Questionable right Shoulder
Jonathan Meeks S Questionable Foot
Aaron Williams S Questionable Ankle

NE

Jacoby Brissett QB Questionable right Thumb
Marcus Cannon T Questionable Calf
Jonathan Cooper G Questionable Foot
Jonathan Freeny LB Questionable Shoulder
Jimmy Garoppolo QB Questionable right Shoulder
Rob Gronkowski TE Questionable Hamstring
Dont'a Hightower LB Questionable Knee
Eric Rowe CB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 16
–
NE 0

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:35 TD BUF (5:35) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short right to 25-L.McCoy for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – NE 0
  • Q2 14:53 FG BUF (14:53) 2-D.Carpenter 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 10 – NE 0
  • Q2 07:51 FG BUF (7:51) 2-D.Carpenter 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 13 – NE 0
  • Q3 00:33 FG BUF (:33) 2-D.Carpenter 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 16 – NE 0

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (12:48) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to BUF 35, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-B.Tate to BUF 35 for no gain (18-M.Slater).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 3 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (3:54) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to BUF 32, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 8 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 93%

    (14:53) 2-D.Carpenter 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 11 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:34) 6-R.Allen punts 56 yards to BUF 10, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-B.Tate to BUF 20 for 10 yards (18-M.Slater; 43-N.Ebner). PENALTY on BUF-24-S.Gilmore, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 10.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 7 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 84%

    (7:51) 2-D.Carpenter 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (1:13) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to NE 15, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 80-D.Amendola to NE 20 for 5 yards (57-L.Alexander; 65-G.Sanborn).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:18) 6-C.Schmidt punts 48 yards to NE 25, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 80-D.Amendola to NE 24 for -1 yards (50-R.Humber).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 2 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 55%

    (12:03) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 28-J.White pushed ob at BUF 30 for 8 yards (20-C.Graham).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 10 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 74%

    (10:32) 3-S.Gostkowski 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 12 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 76%

    (7:20) 2-D.Carpenter 47 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 10 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 81%

    (:33) 2-D.Carpenter 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 19 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (13:09) 6-R.Allen punts 56 yards to BUF 15, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:13) 6-C.Schmidt punts 35 yards to NE 24, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 80-D.Amendola MUFFS catch, and recovers at NE 24. 80-D.Amendola to NE 24 for no gain (30-C.White). BUF-30-C.White was injured during the play.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 27 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 80%

    (3:25) (Shotgun) 28-J.White up the middle to BUF 25 for 2 yards (91-L.Douzable; 55-J.Hughes).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 21 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 88%

    (2:51) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 87-R.Gronkowski (23-A.Williams).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 4 at the 62 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:06) 6-C.Schmidt punts 37 yards to NE 25, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 24-C.Jones MUFFS catch, and recovers at NE 26.