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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 24

Buffalo Bills 10 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(7:51) 2-D.Carpenter 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.63 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 24, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 34, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model