4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 82

New England Patriots 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(12:48) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to BUF 35, Center-49-J.Cardona. 15-B.Tate to BUF 35 for no gain (18-M.Slater).

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +1.20 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 82, worth -4.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.77 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 40, worth -1.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EP