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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 38

New England Patriots 0 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(12:03) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 28-J.White pushed ob at BUF 30 for 8 yards (20-C.Graham).

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.72 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 38, worth -1.99 EP
KICK -0.09 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 47, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model