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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 30

New England Patriots 0 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(10:32) 3-S.Gostkowski 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.72 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 40, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model