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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 29

Buffalo Bills 13 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(7:20) 2-D.Carpenter 47 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.88 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 29, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 39, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model