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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 59

Buffalo Bills 16 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(7:13) 6-C.Schmidt punts 35 yards to NE 24, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 80-D.Amendola MUFFS catch, and recovers at NE 24. 80-D.Amendola to NE 24 for no gain (30-C.White). BUF-30-C.White was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.50 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 59, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 18, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model