4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 21

New England Patriots 0 – Buffalo Bills 16

What Actually Happened

(2:51) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 87-R.Gronkowski (23-A.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.45 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 31, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.52 EP