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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 62

Buffalo Bills 16 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(1:06) 6-C.Schmidt punts 37 yards to NE 25, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 24-C.Jones MUFFS catch, and recovers at NE 26.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +0.46 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 62, worth -2.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 21, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model