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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 16

Buffalo Bills 7 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(14:53) 2-D.Carpenter 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.27 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 16, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 26, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model