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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 10

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:01) 3-M.Bryant 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.72 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model