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CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
@
ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2016-10-02 · 13:00 Georgia Dome, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

CAR
50.7%
ATL
49.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL defense: +0.130 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • ATL offense: +0.086 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • CAR defense: -0.143 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to ATL: Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.180 vs Cam Newton (CAR) +0.156 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CAR 26
–
ATL 25
Projected margin: CAR by 1 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

CAR

Vernon Butler DT Out Ankle
Michael Oher T Out Concussion
Jonathan Stewart RB Out Hamstring
Charles Johnson DE Questionable Quadricep

ATL

De'Vondre Campbell LB Out Ankle
Paul Worrilow LB Out Groin

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 33
–
ATL 48

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 30 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:20 TD ATL (7:20) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 83-J.Tamme for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – ATL 6
  • Q1 00:23 TD ATL (:23) 24-D.Freeman right guard for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 0 – ATL 13
  • Q2 11:37 TD CAR (11:37) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left intended for 24-D.Freeman INTERCEPTED by 20-K.Coleman (58-T.Davis) at ATL 8. 20-K.Coleman for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – ATL 14
  • Q2 06:01 FG ATL (6:01) 3-M.Bryant 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. CAR 7 – ATL 17
  • Q2 03:12 FG CAR (3:12) 9-G.Gano 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee. CAR 10 – ATL 17
  • Q3 09:23 TD ATL (9:23) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 81-A.Hooper for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 10 – ATL 23
  • Q3 05:05 TD ATL (5:05) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 19-A.Robinson for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CAR 10 – ATL 30
  • Q4 13:24 FG ATL (13:24) 3-M.Bryant 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. CAR 10 – ATL 34
  • Q4 11:47 TD CAR (11:47) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 13-K.Benjamin for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 16 – ATL 34
  • Q4 04:05 TD CAR (4:05) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass short left to 88-G.Olsen for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 24 – ATL 34
  • Q4 03:58 TD ATL (3:58) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 26 – ATL 40
  • Q4 02:00 TD CAR (2:00) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass short right to 10-C.Brown for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 32 – ATL 41
  • Q4 01:25 TD ATL (1:25) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass short right intended for 88-G.Olsen INTERCEPTED by 23-R.Alford at CAR 30. 23-R.Alford for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 33 – ATL 47

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 5 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (11:41) 8-A.Lee punts 53 yards to ATL 21, Center-44-J.Jansen. 14-E.Weems pushed ob at ATL 39 for 18 yards (14-J.Webb). PENALTY on ATL-16-J.Hardy, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 39.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 3 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 26%

    (4:02) 8-A.Lee punts 50 yards to ATL 2, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-42-C.Jones.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 6 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 47%

    (12:25) 8-A.Lee punts 42 yards to ATL 1, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-27-R.McClain.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 5 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 96%

    (6:01) 3-M.Bryant 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 3 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 65%

    (3:12) 9-G.Gano 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-A.Lee.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:53) 5-M.Bosher punts 56 yards to CAR 18, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 26 for 8 yards (47-J.Harris).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (:19) 8-A.Lee punts 54 yards to ATL 2, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-27-R.McClain.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (8:27) 8-A.Lee punts 56 yards to ATL 16, Center-44-J.Jansen. 14-E.Weems to ATL 26 for 10 yards (52-J.Norris). PENALTY on ATL-34-B.Poole, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at ATL 16.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (3:46) 8-A.Lee punts 49 yards to ATL 22, Center-44-J.Jansen. 14-E.Weems to ATL 29 for 7 yards (27-R.McClain).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 11 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 67%

    (13:24) 3-M.Bryant 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 9 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 32%

    (9:29) 5-M.Bosher punts 43 yards to CAR 6, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 16 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 94%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass short right to 10-C.Brown for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 10 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:37) 5-M.Bosher punts 59 yards to CAR 16, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-T.Ginn ran ob at CAR 24 for 8 yards (53-L.Reynolds).