Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 71

Carolina Panthers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 31

(3:46) 8-A.Lee punts 49 yards to ATL 22, Center-44-J.Jansen. 14-E.Weems to ATL 29 for 7 yards (27-R.McClain).

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 71, worth -4.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model