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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 49

Atlanta Falcons 34 – Carolina Panthers 18

What Actually Happened

(9:29) 5-M.Bosher punts 43 yards to CAR 6, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.12 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -1.16 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model