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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 52

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(4:02) 8-A.Lee punts 50 yards to ATL 2, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-42-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.64 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 52, worth -2.91 EP
KICK -1.59 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 15, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP