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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Cleveland Browns
4th & 6 at the 42
Cleveland Browns 20 – Washington Commanders 31
What Actually Happened
(2:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass incomplete short right to 11-T.Pryor.
The Three Options
GO
+0.08 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.81 EP
- 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 42, worth -1.62 EP
KICK
-0.01 EP
- 49% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
- 51% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT
-0.43 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.43 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
