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Cleveland Browns

HC Hue Jackson
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Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
Sunday 2016-10-02 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

CLE
28.6%
WAS
71.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.096 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • WAS offense: +0.116 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Kirk Cousins (WAS): +0.215 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • WAS defense: +0.095 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 20
–
WAS 28
Projected margin: WAS by 8 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

CLE

Corey Coleman WR Out Hand
Seth DeValve TE Out Knee
Cameron Erving C Out Chest
Josh McCown QB Out left Shoulder
Carl Nassib DE Out Hand
Nate Orchard LB Out Ankle
Tramon Williams CB Doubtful Shoulder
Ibraheim Campbell S Questionable Hamstring
Joe Haden CB Questionable Groin

WAS

Bashaud Breeland CB Out Ankle
Josh Doctson WR Out Achilles
Shawn Lauvao G Out Ankle
Dashaun Phillips CB Out Hamstring
Trent Murphy LB Questionable Elbow
Kendall Reyes DE Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 20
–
WAS 31

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:45 TD WAS (7:45) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 86-J.Reed for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – WAS 6
  • Q1 00:34 TD WAS (:34) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 86-J.Reed for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – WAS 13
  • Q2 09:38 TD CLE (9:38) 66-S.Drango reported in as eligible. 34-I.Crowell left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – WAS 14
  • Q2 08:03 TD CLE (8:03) 6-C.Kessler pass short right to 11-T.Pryor for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN [51-W.Compton]. PENALTY on CLE-11-T.Pryor, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. Penalty- Using the ball as a prop CLE 13 – WAS 14
  • Q2 02:35 FG WAS (2:35) 3-D.Hopkins 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. CLE 14 – WAS 17
  • Q2 00:05 FG CLE (:05) 3-C.Parkey 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CLE 17 – WAS 17
  • Q3 09:30 FG CLE (9:30) 3-C.Parkey 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CLE 20 – WAS 17
  • Q4 10:43 TD WAS (10:43) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 25-C.Thompson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 20 – WAS 23
  • Q4 04:28 TD WAS (4:28) 31-M.Jones right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 20 – WAS 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 4 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 47%

    (4:51) 4-B.Colquitt punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 71%

    (:05) 3-C.Parkey 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 11 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 82%

    (9:30) 3-C.Parkey 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 11 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:59) 5-T.Way punts 59 yards to CLE 5, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 29-D.Johnson to CLE 23 for 18 yards (30-D.Bruton; 47-Q.Dunbar).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 42 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 49%

    (2:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass incomplete short right to 11-T.Pryor.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 8 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:48) 5-T.Way punts 39 yards to CLE 17, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 33-J.Poyer ran ob at CLE 19 for 2 yards.