4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 56

Washington Commanders 31 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(1:48) 5-T.Way punts 39 yards to CLE 17, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 33-J.Poyer ran ob at CLE 19 for 2 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.82 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 56, worth -1.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 17, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model