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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 55

Cleveland Browns 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(4:51) 4-B.Colquitt punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.51 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 55, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP