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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 52

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(8:25) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 35 yards to DEN 17, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.96 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 52, worth -2.97 EP
KICK -2.00 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.92 EP
PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 15, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model