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Denver Broncos

HC Gary Kubiak
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
Sunday 2016-10-02 · 16:05 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

DEN
45.3%
TB
54.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.072 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • TB defense: +0.101 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Trevor Siemian (DEN): +0.182 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DEN defense: -0.123 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 22
–
TB 24
Projected margin: TB by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

DEN

Virgil Green TE Out Calf
Donald Stephenson T Out Calf
DeMarcus Ware LB Out Forearm
Shiloh Keo S Questionable Knee
Justin Simmons S Questionable Hand

TB

Robert Ayers DE Out Ankle
Doug Martin RB Out Hamstring
Cecil Shorts WR Out Hamstring
Luke Stocker TE Out Ankle
Joe Hawley C Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 27
–
TB 7

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:31 TD DEN (13:31) 13-T.Siemian pass short right to 88-D.Thomas for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – TB 0
  • Q1 06:47 TD TB (6:47) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston scrambles up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. DEN 7 – TB 6
  • Q2 12:18 TD DEN (12:18) 77-D.Weems reported in as eligible. 22-C.Anderson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – TB 7
  • Q2 00:09 FG DEN (:09) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 17 – TB 7
  • Q3 07:07 FG DEN (7:07) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 20 – TB 7
  • Q4 09:01 TD DEN (9:01) 12-P.Lynch pass short right to 10-E.Sanders for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 26 – TB 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.70 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (4:59) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to TB 13, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 19 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (1:28) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 53 yards to DEN 17, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 19 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (14:10) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 57 yards to TB 17, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 11-A.Humphries pushed ob at TB 28 for 11 yards (87-J.Taylor).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 7 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 21%

    (8:25) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 35 yards to DEN 17, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:07) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to TB 35, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 11-A.Humphries to 50 for 15 yards (52-C.Nelson).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 7 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:54) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to TB 16, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries. PENALTY on DEN, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at TB 16.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 4 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:31) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 52 yards to DEN 21, Center-48-A.DePaola. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 33 for 12 yards (26-J.Robinson).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 89%

    (:09) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (7:07) (Field Goal formation) 8-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (5:40) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to DEN 38, Center-48-A.DePaola. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 35 for -3 yards. Lateral to 14-C.Latimer to TB 43 for 22 yards (50-J.Keyes). PENALTY on DEN-36-K.Webster, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 35.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 4 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 31%

    (2:14) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to TB 7, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-36-K.Webster.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 7 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (:16) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 48 yards to DEN 42, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 11 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (14:57) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to TB 5, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 11-A.Humphries to TB 16 for 11 yards (32-A.Janovich).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:43) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-48-A.DePaola, Touchback.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 6 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 34%

    (7:30) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 35 yards to DEN 11, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (4:28) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to TB 19, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-14-C.Latimer.