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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 78

Denver Broncos 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:07) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to TB 35, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 11-A.Humphries to 50 for 15 yards (52-C.Nelson).

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.45 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 35, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model