Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 63

Denver Broncos 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:54) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to TB 16, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries. PENALTY on DEN, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at TB 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.25 EP
61% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model