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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 73

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(1:31) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 52 yards to DEN 21, Center-48-A.DePaola. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 33 for 12 yards (26-J.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.66 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 73, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 31, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model