Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 17 at the 82

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(5:40) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to DEN 38, Center-48-A.DePaola. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 35 for -3 yards. Lateral to 14-C.Latimer to TB 43 for 22 yards (50-J.Keyes). PENALTY on DEN-36-K.Webster, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 35.

The Three Options

GO -3.03 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 82, worth -4.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model