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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 90

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(:16) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 48 yards to DEN 42, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

The Three Options

GO -2.83 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.76 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 90, worth -5.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 47, worth -2.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model