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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 59

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(13:43) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-48-A.DePaola, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.74 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 59, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 18, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model