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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 67

Denver Broncos 27 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:28) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to TB 19, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-14-C.Latimer.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.45 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model