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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 54

Denver Broncos 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:59) (Punt formation) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to TB 13, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +3.08 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 54, worth -3.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.70 EP