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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 19 at the 70

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(1:28) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 53 yards to DEN 17, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.78 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 70, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 28, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model