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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 71

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(:14) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 50 yards to IND 21, Center-46-C.Tinker. 11-Q.Bray pushed ob at IND 25 for 4 yards (52-H.Pullard).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.90 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 71, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 29, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model